My predictions for computing-What do you think?

[bigbaddog]

Last year I made a prediction-"In five years or less, CRT monitors will cease to exist...they will go the way of the Dodo bird and Betamax video recorder. The reason I feel this way-CRT's are expensive to make, heavy, power hungry and difficult to repair and dispose of."

Just the past month I make another prediction-"In ten years or less desktop computers as we know them today will be gone as well...laptops and all-in-one computers will be fast and cheap enough for everyone and desktops, which consume more power and take up more space will be a thing of the past." Which is sad because I hate laptops: I build desktops as a hobby and have been doing so for the last 6 years or so...so what do I do now? Mod laptops? :mad: Start building Minicomps? :eek:

Lets here from everyone-what is your opinion?

[maximan1]

hmmm...you have a point.
Monitors, definatly. Computers, no. See, large companys (take a yahoo for example) will always need new computers, new updates, new everything. But a graphics design company will just put in a new video card, new RAM and everything will be fine. On the rare occasion in which the print shop (or art studio or whatever) will change to new computers, it will be to a new $400 HP (well maybe not a print shop. They will probably get something better, but still) so I suggest making abstractier comps (for those of you selling out there), and desktops will NEVER go out of style.
-maximan1

[silverdemon]

I don't think everybody will use laptops in the future, however, I think that the media-centres will be very popular...
A nice HD-screen in the center of the room on which you can display everything... That's neat!!

[Rankenphile]

Within five years expect all internal storage to be primarily flash based. You may still see large-format storage (300TB, etc) which utilize the disk platter system, but they will be coupled with large-format flash-based solid-state memory. This reduces power usage and cuts down on moving parts and heat, both notorious vectors for breakdown and damage. Large storage will be for media center PCs and such, which will be integrated into most entertainment systems. The larger capacity will be necessary for high-definition and digital direct delivery of media.

[dgrmkrp]

nanotubes, new transistors.. flash based fast memory access and holographic mass-storage devices, instead of harddrives and cds.. displays with more colours, more dynamic and, hopefully, cheaper.. although some of these seem far-fetched, prototypes exist even today and i've read articles of dvds 10mm thick storing 1000GB of data, articles from intel talking about how they wanna improve upon current leakage and 3D positioned gates.. and we all know about solid state disks...

i think we can't predict much... we can just be surprised :)

[d_stilgar]

I think more and more is going to be online. Online word processing, online programs. The internet will get fate enough that it will be possible. Computers and monitors will become more of dummy stations to connect to the internet and nothing else. There are even some online shockwave first person shooters already.

On the other side, professional computers for graphic design, movie editing, and gaming will get faster and faster. Laptops are usually one step behind desktops. I expect that laptops will catch up and supass the desktop technology we have now, but the desktops will become even faster and more powerful than that.

[nil8]

Solid state drives have some real problems that need to be addressed, but they will probably start lives in things like TiVo or similar consumer products because of the smaller storage of the drives.

Personally, I don't know what to predict. Look at google. Who knew that 8 years ago there would be an upstart that has the status that Google now has.
No one.
I predict that technology will change and get faster. That's all I need to know.
CRT's will probably dissapear, but that's alright. LCD technology is addressing it's issues and making it better and better month after month.

The desktop will stay around, just in a different way. Maybe it will be normal to have some type of in-wall display hooked up to a micro box that sits somewhere else in the house?

Micro machines are becoming popular because it proves how versatile and useful computers are. You don't have to embrace it if you don't want. There will always be some of us who like a 90lb tower.

[Slug Toy]

crt's wont disappear, they will just change form. theres a new thing called sedtv... surface emission electron display or something like that. its basically a crt, except it has a projector for each and every phosphor dot. there is supposed to be a 50 inch widescreen tv coming out with this from.... toshiba?..... within the year. im a little sketchy on this but i know that it is happening.


new transistors

silicon germanium transistors. anyone hear about what ibm did with them? apparently they can run at 350GHz at room temperature, and 500GHz at 4 degrees kelvin. there are other transistors that intel is working that are optical transistors. they are actually able to emit light pulses, and this is a step towards optical computing.

in terms of hardware.... this is how im hoping things turn out. in terms of manufacturing processes, i bet electronics will max out at 32nm, because that is the smallest the UV lithography can do at this point. after amd rolls out hypertransport 3.0 in a couple years, i think we'll see a roadmap pointing towards optical interconnects, followed relatively shortly by optical logic of some sort (maybe primitive ic's, moving up to chipsets and then cpu's). ram will probably go optical at that point, just like the holographic storage. at this point, i would say that frequencies will scale nicely up to insane speeds, and we wont have problems shrinking die sizes because light doesnt leak as much as electrons do. the optical computing will peak out and stagnate within about 7 years.

graphics cards and other add ons may or may not go optical at the same time. i would imagine that plugging in optical add on cards may not be as simple as the electric counterparts. it will eventually happen, but maybe a couple years after the first optical logic surfaces. speaking of graphics cards, we'll probably see massively parallel computing on board or even on a single chip. there are strong rumours of dual core gpu's in either this next generation or the one after. cpu's of course are already going parallel, and will continue.

more integrated processing solutions (physics, AI, and the likes). this also means less space needed. desktops will get smaller.

thats as far as i want to dream for hardware. as for things like software and internet, well that will be interesting in the near future. anyone hear about google and how they bought that huge building recently? the building has feeds with dark optics internet lines, and they are also hiring dark optics technicians. i am willing to bet google is going to set up a HUGE computing array there, and as it stands right now, they could very well consolidate most of the internet into one building. it may well end up one day that we wont have isp's... we'll have googlenet.

imagine what google internet would do for continuity. we have a google linux, tons of other google software.... "ownership" of the interrnet would put the final nail in the coffin and allow for an amazing interface with the world. i wonder what microsoft would do.... i cant predict them... they're just too ass-headed from what i can tell, and thats saying something seeming as im constantly being called an idiot.

holy crap... this list can go on and on and on. this kind of progression is like an expanding sphere. as it grows, it has more surface area... more areas of knowledge and technology. i think we're going to see a rapid growth in diversity as well as speed and convenience (diversity being proportional to speed such that: diversity=(4 x pi x speed^3)/3 ... you may or may not understand that, depending on if you know a little bit about geometry).

so, to summarize... can we possibly predict everything that is going to happen? probably not further than about a year down the road. there is a good chance ill be wrong about 90% of what i have said. i just wrote down what i would like to see happen.

i dont think desktops are done yet though. they have another ten to fifteen years.

[FyR]

silicon germanium transistors. anyone hear about what ibm did with them? apparently they can run at 350GHz at room temperature, and 500GHz at 4 degrees kelvin. there are other transistors that intel is working that are optical transistors. they are actually able to emit light pulses, and this is a step towards optical computing.


4 degrees kelvin? You do realise thats -269 degrees celcius...? lol thats one cold PC :)

[Airbozo]

I have been working on computers for about 30 years and I hear these predictions ALL the time.

Memory/disks;
Solid State disk devices have been around since the beginning of computer time (think core memory), and in 1986 Storage Tek came out with a Solid State Disk Array, that was nothing more than banks of memory with a ups in the cabinet (think double server rack size) so there was always a charge going to the memory circuit. This product and most other based on the same technology never really caught on.

CRT's;
While LCD and Plasma displays are getting better all the time, most of the firms I work with that do professional film/image editing still use crt's because the quality can not be beat. YET. And just try to explain the dead pixel policy to them and they laugh... Unacceptable for most high end editing houses.

Desktop Systems;
I remember when the first portable's hit the market (your regular size pc with a fold down front housing a keyboard and 7" crt display). Everyone said there was no longer a reason to have a pc on your desk. Same thing happened when laptops hit the market, then most significantly the introduction of the low power CPU's. Guess what? Most people I know STILL have desktop systems AND a laptop. (no and they are not all geeks)

CPU's;
There have been parallel cpu's for decades, and yes they are making thier way to your desktop.

My Take:
There will be push for more low power devices (cpu's, gpu's, etc...) similar to the energy star rating on all new monitors. THis is the same issue that happened when zenith/rca/quasar/etc, came out with the instant on tv's. They really never turned off, just the high voltage circuit was switched off. I expect this to be one of the more dramatic pushes into the home, since large data centers already push for low power/low heat systems to save money.

More thoughts, but I have to go fix some computers...

[CanaBalistic]

Well the rule of thumb is that technology doubles every 2 years.

We will not see the death of desktops anytime soon. Although we will see mass miniturization, the desktop will be a test bed for new technology because of the abient space available.

As for the googlenet comment... It'll never happen. Although google may charge money to use thier backbone, they simply cannot control the whole net. This would also defeat the entire purpose, intent and design of the internet.

I dont imagine dual core will be around for very long. If you can get 2 cores on a single chip there is no reason you couldnt get 4 or 8 cores.


And another thing worth mentioning. Technology can only take us so far. Its only in its infantcy right now which explains the rapid growth. How many monitors do you think will hit the shelfs once we reach life like resolutions with trillions of colors? My guess is not many. And once we reach the monitor maximums, GPU's will max out shortly there after.

Once we meet the internet cap and can download anything instantly. there will be no need for improvment.

As for size, I wouldnt want a computer smaller than my watch.

[Omega]

There's no cap to technology. There's a cap to your senses, though. Sure, moniters can continue to get more and more colors, and GPU's can process faster and faster, but the weak link isn't the computer, It's the user.

My predictions:
CPU's will get smaller, more cores, and lower voltages.
Flash based storage or RAMdrives will be abundant.
Optical drives might become obsolete.

[maximan1]

This thread is scaring me.
Please...I need a future
You're making me scared of it...

[DaveW]

Well the rule of thumb is that technology doubles every 2 years.

You're refering to Moore's law, which states that the processing power of a computer will double every 18 months. Although it sounds like a load of balls, it's actually been mathematically proven a number of times.

-Dave

[Canadian Eh?]

Not sure about only being laptops, but CRT's have to go if they don't, we will destroy them!


ANTI-CRT!!!

[nil8]

High quality CRT's still blow the lid off any LCD on the market. Plus they last longer.

Don't be scared of the future. Modding won't die as long as people remove something from packaging and think they can make it look better. Like cars.

[Airbozo]

High quality CRT's still blow the lid off any LCD on the market. Plus they last longer.

Don't be scared of the future. Modding won't die as long as people remove something from packaging and think they can make it look better. Like cars.


This is truth. As I said before, those companies that need the high quality are still driving the sales of high end monitors. Just installed a monitor for a company that cost over $3500! 24" superwide with unbelieveable picture quality. Of course I had to make sure and test it first. Man all my games look sooo sweet at 1600x1200@85hz, aaahhhhhgghghghghhhhhh....

[Airbozo]

Oh and BTW, I work at a company that sells some refurbished sun and sgi stuff, and we cannot keep enough of the old sgi parts in stock to supply our best customers. I am talking equipment from '97-'01. So no matter how fast the technology changes, some things can still be done best with the older equipment.

[Sudi]

hmmm the future....ITX ftw!!!8)

[Cevinzol]

5 years from now:

- Microsoft will have an O/S that only requires 500 Gigs of hard drive space.. and it will still have bugs.

- cell phones will have so many gadgets in them, you'll be able to do everything, except make a phone call.

- Cars will be self driveable and the windows will be replaced with a wrap around movie screen.

- there will be a large demand for hearing aides from all the iPod users. Buy stock now in miracle-ear (http://www.miracle-ear.com/).

- some guy, named Gutenberg, will get so sick of his printer jamming all the time he will rediscover the manual type-writer and a whole retro movement will be started.

- some terrorist will succed in detonating NNEMP on Wall st. and all stock records will be lost.

- Bill Gates and Warren Buffet will have bought matching Nobel peace prizes for their humanitarian work. Bono will be snubbed but uses his anger to write a new album.

- Some one wil have a viable replacement for the mouse. Possibly eye tracking software.

- Children and pets will be low jacked from birth because advancements in the technology will aid in potty training.

- I will have gotten so sick of hi-tech that I have reverted to stone knives and bear skins as a means of protest. I will deliver all my mail in the form of paper wrapped around a rock, thrown through the destination's window.

[bigbaddog]

5 years from now:

I will have gotten so sick of hi-tech that I have reverted to stone knives and bear skins as a means of protest.

Have we been watching reruns of STAR TREK? ;)