Why Are Synthetic Fuels Not More Prevalent?

[DemonDragonJ]

Gasoline is currently very expensive, compared to what it was years ago, and the reason for this high cost is obvious; as petroleum becomes more scarce, a greater amount of time and effort is required to drill it from the earth, and then refine it into useable fuel.

A remedy for this dilemma of which I have become aware in recent years is synthetic fuels, fuels that are manufactured in a laboratory, rather than being refined from petroleum mined from the ground, and the advantages of such fuels are obvious and significant.

First, synthetic fuels can be manufactured for only a small fraction of the time and effort that is required to produce fossil fuels, since they do not need to be extracted from the earth or refined, while petroleum takes millions of years to form, and thus shall be far less expensive. Second, they can be manufactured specifically to burn more cleanly and last longer, thus saving the environment and money from customers. Third, they can be manufactured from virtually anything, such as prairie grass, scraps of food from restaurants or farms, or other forms of organic waste, such as parts of animals that shall not be consumed by humans.

As great as this idea may be, I have not seen any evidence that synthetic fuels are used very much, since gasoline is still very expensive. While I do believe that the best possible solution for energy and environmental crises are to switch from gasoline cars to electric cars and to replace all fossil fuel power plants with solar and nuclear plants, a reasonable strategy to use while that transition is made would be synthetic fuels. What does everyone else say about this? Why are synthetic fuels not more prevalent?

[Konrad]

How many people do you know who drive small, energy-efficient, alternative-fuel or hybrid cars?

People want monster truck gas-guzzling SUVs. An impromptu (and perhaps unrepresentative) count of the last 50 vehicles driving by my own modest suburban home just now resulted in 6 big trucks, 27 pickups or large SUVs, 10 vans or smaller SUVs, 2 motorcycles, and only 5 cars. Only 7 of these vehicles had at least one passenger (one van looked like it had over a dozen people crowded into it), the overwhelming majority were occupied by only the driver. Not a single one of non-commercial vehicles appeared to be filled with any sort of cargo, unless you count the one van filled with many passengers, even the motorcycle sidecar was empty. Many of the oversized vehicles were pimped out with some bling-bling, chrome, style, and custom prettyness; the drivers can evidently afford smart cars but instead deliberately chose large, heavy, road-blocking, overpowered, noisy cargo haulers decked out for play - the sort of expensive toys one would never dare dent or scratch with a pile of rocks or lumber in the back bed! I would be willing to bet that most of them also have a normal car or two parked at home, but are a little too Chachi to be seen driving "the wife's car" on their daily commute.

Add in the stupid North American Drive-Thru lifestyle, drive-thru banking and drive-thru shopping and drive-thru eating and drive-thru entertainment. Combine with the common mindset of people just driving out of sheer boredom, they just jump into their vehicle and start going, no real idea about where they want to go, even less of an idea about how they plan to get there. We want oil, we want petroleum, and no matter what it costs we will ultimately just keep on paying for it.

[DemonDragonJ]

So, is there any hope for a miraculous solution to our energy and environmental crises? Will there ever be an inexpensive, easily-renewable, and environmentally-friendly source of energy?

[d_stilgar]

The simple fact is that synthetic fuels take a ton of energy to make. Fossil fuels are the result of hundreds of thousands of years of solar energy being trapped and condensed. It's hard to make something that is as energy dense synthetically, and with entropy, we are putting more energy in than we get out in all cases.

Which means that the source of synthetic fuels has to be from renewable energy sources first. Most of this is solar, in the form of biofuels, but it's clear that this isn't a solution since it is very land intensive and the amount of contained in the biofuels isn't much more than the energy required to cultivate and process the crops used to make it.

However, most doom-and-gloom you hear about the end of oil is overstated. Peak oil consumption in the U.S. happened around 2005. There's not a lot of information after that point, but it seems we are on a decline. A financial bust in 2008 meant people are going on fewer trips, and many more people are concerned about the gas mileage of their cars. These changes seem to be relatively permanent.

It's important to understand that oil will never "run out" like people say. This isn't Zombieland where we will all go on a hunt for the last twinkie on earth. Oil will become more expensive, more rare, but basic economics means that we will move away from fossil fuels and replace it with something else. The stone age didn't end for a lack of stones. The oil age will end because we will have a better alternative.

Cars use up a relatively small amount of energy compared to buildings, which make up 36% of total energy use and 65% of electricity consumption. Unlike cars, it's easier to power our buildings from renewables. A good example is in Spain, where solar panels on rooftops were heavily subsidized by the government. Now there are so many solar panels the power company can't stay in business and the state is debating a tax on people using solar panels. They literally have more power than they know what to do with.

Advances in solar panels have been immense, and it's been the result of market forces. As fossil fuel generated electricity has become more expensive, the desire for an alternative has increased, and so more panels were purchased and more research could be done. Solar panels now have a payback period of less than 10 years for most Americans. This is great, especially considering that the lifespan of solar panels is ~30 years. It's starting to make financial sense to go solar for more and more people. Market forces should keep the cost of solar and "the grid" relatively balanced.

There's also a greater interest in making buildings that are much more energy efficient. Not only do building codes require much better buildings than the 1950s and 60s . . . and 80s and 90s, but many large companies and people are finding that going above and beyond code requirements makes financial sense.

Many Wal-marts have been installing skylights, which reduces the lighting load and has the psychological effect of getting people to buy more stuff. LEDs also help reduce the electricity load from lighting. Many stores now use closed refrigerators to save more energy, and hope that people will go to the trouble of opening the door to put the food in their carts, and motion sensors control the interior lights of the units.

That was a bit of a ramble, but the TLDR version is that we will be alright. There's no need to worry about the sky falling or anything. Things will be different, but not apocalyptic, and not even necessarily worse.