Stock Market collapse: Prepare For The Bear

[Crazy Buddhist]

Two weeks and one day ago I predicted this collapse in markets. Aside from solving computer issues h/w s/w user etc and being a Buddhisty type, I am a former stockmarket analyst, stockbroker and merchant banker.

If you have debts reign in your costs people and if you have lots of stockmarket investments you are relying on hold on for the ride. It is going to be a bad one for the reasons I explain in the original prediction:


US Economy: Prime Down, Private Equity Short: It’s Here: Prepare For The Bear

[AJ@PR]

Gonna read your blog now. cool

I got a quick glance at the ticker today, while I was at a client's site... and I would see it slide... and slide... triple digits... then 10 minutes later, it was in the four digits.

I knew it wasn't good.

I wonder if I sent my self a subconsious message from the future to get out.
Less than 3 weeks ago I removed all but a small portion of my money from UBS (stock brokers). =\

[progbuddy]

Yeah... Well we did hit a peak not too long ago, and it is natural to have a slight recession.

[Redundant]

I doubt it will collapse, it's just the real estate market is unusually low.

Anyone know if it's easy to invest money in a company? I'm very confident that if I invest money in Microsoft around September 20th, it will go up, up, up. *cough*Halo 3*cough* Then I'd take it out in January and probably have a good increase. (I'm a noob when it comes to the stock market, but that's how it works, right?)

[Crazy Buddhist]

Nah this is going to be a big bad nasty bear. Not a blip.

[Ironcat]

Yeah... Well we did hit a peak not too long ago, and it is natural to have a slight recession.

He's right...

You say it's going to be a bad bear but don't say how bad, when, or for how long.
In the next 2 to 3 years something will happen that will be bad and then in the next 1 to 2 years after that, something good will happen.

I know nothing about the stock market or bulls and bears or anything else, and I don't mean to talk out my ass, but vague predictions mean nothing.

I might as well invent a Nostradamus quatrain.

"On the street of walls, a mighty fall.
In the city of (insert blather here) the bear will roar.
For two years will he trample the vineyards,
slowly the people will rebuild."

[Crazy Buddhist]

He's right...

You say it's going to be a bad bear but don't say how bad, when, or for how long.

Err ..... nah .. actually you are wrong there dude, if you had read the prediction I linked to you would know I stated that it will be a deep bear lead by the US economy with worldwide knock-on effects and lasting nearly five years - but that the UK would be somewhat protected:

"The Democrats will be handed a Basket economy on the point of implosion and two wars they can neither win, withdraw from or pay for. When I was at Las vegas airport earlier this year a Trucker from New Jersey gave me a light. We chatted as we smoked outside the terminal. “You watch”, he said, “The Democrats are down to a black and a woman for President. The Republicans aren’t gonna let a black or a woman run the show. There will be another major terrorist attack”. I do not believe he is right there. Another terrorist attack would only ensure the Democrats are in for ten years, whomever they chose. Without it they will be in for five, crisis managing through the bear to the beginning of the upside, before a shiny young besuited whiter than white Republican can take over to ride the good times."

I know nothing about the stock market or bulls and bears or anything else, and I don't mean to talk out my ass, but vague predictions mean nothing.

As you admit you know nothing about the subject you probably realise, I hope, that you are in danger of talking outta yr ***. I am a qualified and registered stockbroker and qualified investment analyst. My predictions are not vague and - again you would know this if you had read the piece:

"Prepare for the bear because it is coming. Luckily we will be protected from the wash to some extent by the trading block of Europe and the trade we have with China and India who are of course leading world growth. But any major remolding of the shape of the US economy will not be without knock on effects. In the UK we can expect inflation up 1 -1.5% over the next two years and interest up 2 - 3 points. At the same time many people are coming off low fixed rate mortgages set five or ten years ago. The effects on consumer spending will be quite significant, slowing growth to near zero for a short sharp spell.
"

Those are pretty specific.

Matthew

ps It isn't about peaks and troughs it's about something deeper. If you have never heard of the South Sea Bubble then search the net and read about it. Asset inflation has spiralled and now you can't use dollars effectively because you owe too many already. the US will suffer a materials shortage next. The US economy is in a position somewhat akin to the SSB but not quite as awful.

[Airbozo]

Here is where I sit;

Real Estate = Protected. My investments were made many years ago while the market was low and things would have to get _extremely_ bad to even make me worry (I am talking 1/3 of what the value is now. Not gonna happen in cali...) All my interest rates are ~4.8% - 5.1%. Glad I did not take any money out of these. We leave them alone for the future...

Stock market = Neutral. Diversified investments managed by someone who knows what they are doing.

Other (bonds, money market, short term stuff) = neutral to upside. Again, managed by a company that knows what they are doing and have a very good track record during bear and bull markets (long and short term).

My only concern is my 401k since I know the company that manages it is slow on the draw. I am working to protect those investments now.

The other way it will affect me is in interest rates. The SO and I were hoping to do some remodeling on the kitchen and wanted to use the equity loan we have, but due to interest rates I am not even touching that. Looks like the kitchen will happen one cabinet at a time...

[Ironcat]

Don't get grumpy now, I was just stating my opinions.

Okay, let's see... firstly I did 'read the piece'.
Some of it I didn't understand but that's okay, if we all knew the same things the world would be a boring place... What's a Basket economy? You capitalized it as if it were a proper term but I can't find it anywhere except in one article about Peruvian weavers being cheated out of their textile profits.

Secondly, the type you emboldened merely referred to the time you predict the democratic party to be in power and 'managing through the bear to the beginning of the upside'.
So what you're saying is sometime between your prediction and the next election something bad will happen and sometime between 5 and 10 years from then it will start to get better?
That's what I am talking about when I refer to your vague timetables...

Again, I freely admit to not knowing how the stock market works at all, but in my humble opinion, a prediction doesn't cover a half a decade or so. A prediction is where you say "Okay, sometime around last 3 months of such-and-such year, the interest rate will start rising, and continue to rise until such-and-such month of X year, when it will drop down because of blah blah blah.
Otherwise I can just say that I am in touch with the economy of the agriculture and predict that milk prices will continue to rise causing more and more kids to drink koolaid. I see this rise in prices lasting a few years before levling off somewhere down the road.

the US will suffer a materials shortage next

What sort of materials shortage? Construction shortages have been happening since at least 2000, China has been buying up all the good concrete and steel since at least then, and probably won't stop anytime soon.

[Luke122]

Break this down for me: WHAT SHOULD I DO WITH MY MONEY? (I'm in Canada btw)